Counterfactuals

Read this page as structural re-solving for parameter changes. CCP shares the finite reward target with NFXP, but the public wrapper currently exposes fewer one-call intervention types.

The public counterfactual method handles structural parameter changes. It solves the fitted model again after changing one or more fitted parameters.

cf = model.counterfactual(RC=4.0)

print(cf.params)
print(cf.value_function)
print(cf.policy)

The method returns a parameter dictionary, value function, and policy. It does not currently expose a one-call public interface for changing transitions or disabling actions.

Counterfactual Families

The simulation harness evaluates three broader counterfactual families against oracle solutions.

Type	Intervention	Purpose
Type A	Shift rewards and hold transitions fixed.	Payoff counterfactual.
Type B	Change transitions and hold rewards fixed.	State-dynamics counterfactual.
Type C	Disable one non-anchor action.	Action-set or design counterfactual.

Reported Results

These rows come from the same simulation results file used on the simulation study page.

Counterfactual	Policy TV	Policy KL	Value RMSE	Regret
Type A	0.005109	7.56e-5	0.000238	0.000213
Type B	0.005457	8.20e-5	0.000363	0.000362
Type C	0.003548	3.56e-5	0.000114	0.000086

The regret values report how the policy from the recovered reward compares with the oracle counterfactual policy.