Counterfactuals

MPEC estimates structural reward parameters and a value function, but it does not currently expose the same one-call dataframe wrapper counterfactual method as NFXP and CCP. Counterfactual evidence therefore comes from the simulation harness.

The harness re-solves the structural model under intervention-specific oracle objects and compares MPEC’s recovered structural object to those oracle solutions.

Counterfactual Families

The simulation harness evaluates three counterfactual families against oracle solutions.

Type	Intervention	Purpose
Type A	Shift rewards and hold transitions fixed.	Payoff counterfactual.
Type B	Change transitions and hold rewards fixed.	State-dynamics counterfactual.
Type C	Disable one non-anchor action.	Action-set or design counterfactual.

Reported Results

These rows come from the same simulation results file used on the simulation study page.

Counterfactual	Policy TV	Policy KL	Value RMSE	Regret
Type A	0.005109	7.56e-5	0.000238	0.000213
Type B	0.005457	8.20e-5	0.000363	0.000362
Type C	0.003549	3.56e-5	0.000114	0.000086

The regret values report how the policy from the recovered reward compares with the oracle counterfactual policy.